Friday, 31 October 2014

Ebola and homeopathy



A few months ago I wrote a fairly patronising summary of the ebola situation as was, and optimistically opined that perhaps the problem had been exaggerated by the media. Annoyingly, the disease has yet to burn itself out and the most current data from the WHO reports that there have now been at least 13,700 cases and 4,900 deaths.

In the UK there has been only one, imported, case of ebola. This was William Pooley, who contracted the disease in Sierra Leone and was transferred to London in August. He was treated with the new drug ZMapp, made a full recovery and has returned to Sierra Leone to continue his help.

The vast majority of cases remain in the West African countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and so it remains quite unlikely that infected people from these areas will reach the UK and transmit the virus here. The risk is certainly not zero however, and so Britain is currently continuing with preparations for this possibility. Most trusts have published protocols and guidance for dealing with suspected ebola cases.





Spotted in a Birmingham Hospital's ITU

I attended a lecture at my hospital on the subject, and learnt about the procedures to reduce the risk of infection, such as extra PPE and keeping such patients isolated in negative pressure rooms. Importantly, the staff were warned not to transfer suspected blood samples to the lab via the pneumatic tube system we would usually use, in case the blood vials were to break and effectively aerosol the blood and virus all around the hospital.


Ebola not welcome: A sign on the entrance to an Edgbaston GP Practice

Perhaps the most important intervention will be the use of homeopathy to combat the epidemic. Resources should clearly be diverted to the development and distribution of a homeopathic cure, you can help by signing a petition to urge the WHO to do just this. Sign it HERE*.

The good news is that a team of homeopaths have been mobilised to frontline West Africa to begin this important work.

A cynical person might suggest that sending homeopaths to ebola zones is evidence of natural selection at work. This is a cruel joke, and meaningless too because evolution doesn't exist.



Some homeopathic pills to treat Malaria


Anyway, you can already easily buy homeopathic treatment for most diseases online, including pills for dengue, meningitis and tuberculosis.

And of course mercifully there are several homeopathic clinics in Africa many of which offer cures for HIV and AIDS. Not sure if I've mentioned on this blog but I went to Tanzania earlier this year. I’ve seen a little of how devastating HIV can be to communities and individuals, but luckily charities exist that aim to help reduce this suffering. This is one of them, http://www.homeopathyforhealthinafrica.org/ and it has characteristically virtuous aims:

- To relieve the suffering of HIV/AIDS patients using classical homoeopathy
- To identify the homoeopathic remedies most successful in treating HIV/AIDS
- To spread this knowledge throughout Tanzania and Africa
- To produce formal, ethical research
- To prove to the world what homoeopathy can do


For the unenlightened, homeopathy involves taking an ingredient that causes harm and diluting it significantly, thereby releasing its healing power. The standard dilution (such as for the linked cures for dengue and meningitis above) is “30C”, meaning the original drop has been diluted by 1 drop in 100, 30 times. So 30C means one part in 1060.
This level of dilution, such that there are zero molecules of ingredient left in the treatment, is vital for the homeopathy to work.

Regrettably however, the benefits of homeopathy are denied by some groups – for example educated people and "scientists". For example, some of these “scientists” published a paper in the Lancet that compared 110 studies of homeopathy with 110 conventional medicine studies and concluded that the effects of homeopathic interventions are merely placebo effects. (1)

The 2009 official WHO statement is similarly closed minded:
“There is no place for homeopathy in treating serious illness such as HIV, TB, malaria and infant diarrhoea in developing countries.”
Quite clearly a needlessly obstructive and unhelpfully negative attitude.

In all seriousness I wish the homeopathy team in Africa the very best and sincerely hope that they manage to avoid infection,  and especially so to prevent the spread of the disease further.



*Please do not sign this stupid petition


The reference for the paper I mentioned is:
1. Shang A, Huwiler-Müntener K, NarteyL, Jüni P, Dörig S, Sterne JA, et al. Are the clinical effects of homoeopathyplacebo effects? Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathyand allopathy. Lancet. 2005;366(9487):726-32.








Sunday, 12 October 2014

How to Become an F1 Doctor - The Illusion of Choice

Some, including yours truly, may find it difficult to believe that in August 2015 I expect to begin life as a junior doctor. If everything goes to plan then I will nervously sweat and mumble and spread infection in a hospital – like what I currently do as a medical student, only more so (and with more direct consequences for the ill people I come into contact with).  

The most junior doctors in hospitals used to be called House officers, but since 2005 are now called FY1 doctors – because they are in the first of two years of the foundation programme. A complicated nationwide online system is used to match the 7000 or so applicants to their foundation programme jobs and hospitals. Put simply, each candidate ranks the available jobs in order of preference and is allocated one based on the number of points they can scramble together. Points mean prizes, and the prize here is precedence in allocation of your application choices.

I foolishly spend far more time complaining about the application process (see current whinging blog post) than actually thinking about my own application; the deadline is this week.  Now and then I become self-aware enough to feel a little ashamed of complaining and realise how good we have it as medical students; unlike almost every other degree programme in the UK nearly all of us that pass medical finals will get a job, somewhere. For the last four years there have been more applicants than jobs for them but for example last year in 2014 96% (7114)  where allocated jobs in the first round and places were eventually found for all 235 remaining on the reserve list.
So bearing that in mind, here is where I whinge at length about the system, conveniently grouping my complaints into two categories thus:

1) The points system is not perfect
Some jobs and some parts of the country are more desirable and therefore more competitive than others.  You can’t make every finalist happy (see current whinging blog post) and allocating randomly is clearly madness. So a system has been devised to rank students from best to worst such that the better get to go where they want and the worse have to go where they’re told. This is done by ascribing each student a score out of 100:

The educational performance measure (50 points max)
An applicant gets between 34-43 points for their decile in their medical school exams to date. I don’t think there’s a particularly strong correlation between exam score and competency as a doctor, common sense and teamwork and time management are more important than memorising textbooks (but maybe that’s me being defensive since I’m not top of the year by a considerable margin). Also some question whether the points awarded per deciles should be equivalent across all medical schools as is currently the case, despite different entry standards, different syllabuses, and different exams  (though this argument is usually made by those individuals with a snobbishly high regard for the calibre of their own institution.) Admittedly this system might change in years to come.

There are up to seven extra points given for other degrees, depending on how advanced the degree is (bachelors, masters, doctorate) and its classification. Again the number of points are standardised between degree subjects and institutions and includes intercalated degrees, all of which vary considerably. I spent three years getting a degree in biology. It was quite tough, sometimes it was fun and interesting, and I like to pretend it’s given me some life experience and a bit of a broader knowledge base, but I’m pretty sure that this doesn’t make me a better prospective doctor. Essentially I’m getting rewarded for being indecisive about my career.

Finally there are up to two points available for publications, the same number of points for having your name attached to any pubmed number regardless of its relevance, the quality of content or the journal it's published in. I think this leads to a pretty cynical approach where research is regarded primarily as a means to build and decorate CVs, and it is depressingly a feature of the entire medical career structure.

The situational judgement test (50 points)
The other 50 points come from the situational judgement test (SJT), a curious exam sat by every applicant. It uses 70 multiple choice or ranking-type questions to assess whether a candidate is able to make safe and sensible non-clinical professional decisions.

Here it is theoretically possible to score anywhere between zero and fifty– making this 2 hour 20min exam far more important for the job application process than the performance across an applicant’s entire medical degree (where the difference between top student and bottom student translates to only 10 points).

In reality the SJT isn’t quite so discriminatory; over 80% of applicants are within the 10 point band between 35 and 45, in a negatively skewed approximately bell shaped distribution. The average score in 2014 was 38.95 (SD 4.25). The SJT is perhaps more useful in its function as a safety net - candidates that score very poorly are flagged up to assess whether they are suitable to work as a junior doctor despite being able to complete medical school.
2013 SJT results distribution

Given that I have not taken the test yet (I’ll sit it in January) I can’t really comment on its particulars, but I suppose that I am relatively impartial because it hasn’t been used to assess me yet. The test has been used since 2013, an inauspicious inaugural year that was distressing for the applicants as after jobs had originally been declared the tests were remarked, many scores went up or down and so changed the outcome for many.

The SJT is still a relatively unknown quantity, and as such it is fairly odd that our futures are so dependent on it. The existence of the SJT seems to curiously disincentivise one from working to do well in medical school exams, and adds an almost completely random element to the application process. We are advised that it is a test that is impossible to revise for, but that hasn’t stopped entrepreneurial organisations from offering wide ranges of dubious and expensive preparation materials and training courses.

2) Choice is an illusion
I am chronically indecisive. I have no clear view of where I want to be in five years, or what sort of doctor I want to be (if any: plan A is still scratch card windfall). During my time at medical school I haven’t been able to exclude many specialties from my list of potential jobs or careers and I’m not drawn to any particular part of the country for any reason. Plus some people say I overthink sometimes (see current whinging blog post).  I therefore seem to find the applying for F1 less straightforward than many people I know.

The foundation programme is usually six different 4-month rotations, during each the junior acts as dogsbody to senior doctors in a specific area of medicine. There are several levels of apparent choice at work before a job is allocated, firstly the area of the UK (there are 21 “foundation schools”), the hospital, and the specific clutch of six rotations themselves.

Each coloured block here is a foundation school
The first decision is ranking these in order of preference

So with just these three factors there are many hundreds of possible combinations available to consider. Unfortunately, outside of the hospitals I’ve been placed at around Birmingham I have no knowledge of the relative merits of any other part of the UK, or any other hospitals. And I also have no real knowledge about what are the differences are between different F1 jobs. More uncertainty is introduced because all foundation jobs are “subject to change”; I know of people who ended up frustrated with three completely different FY1 rotations to the three they applied for (and were allocated to).

Further considerations that might affect how much you would want a job include the team you will be working with and the consultant you’d be serving under –unfortunately both of which are impossible to know until you start work. You might also attempt to guess where your friends might end up, which is at least as confusing as attempting to predict the future for yourself.

According to the Mental Capacity Act 2005 (completely unnecessary tenuous reference) a person’s choice is valid only if they fully understand the benefits, risks and alternatives of a decision. I don’t feel at all confident that I meet this charge. There is a huge amount of information online comparing different areas to work by every imaginable characteristic, so much information that it becomes impossible to digest it. Deciding what is important (City or Rural? North or south? Medicine or surgery? Is it too competitive? Known or unknown? Accommodation? Old friends or new people? Things to do outside of hospital? And so on?) is difficult and often arbitrary, and the decision is never completely informed due to the uncertainty that remains as to the true nature of the location, hospital and job you apply for.

Perhaps most confusing is that applicants rank all the deaneries before we know our scores – as mentioned above the SJT is shrouded in mystery and ensures that no one is at all sure how strong their application will be until after the results. Perhaps I’d apply to a competitive deanery if I was sure I had enough points to secure a decent hospital and job were I to get it. But regrettably I still don’t know what I want, and anyway it’s quite hard to even guess which deaneries and which jobs will be competitive since this seems to change a great deal from year to year.

So maybe I'm a little defeatist and pessimistic but I feel completely overwhelmed by the scope of possibility for next year, and I have gained almost no useful predictions as to where I will want to be, what I want to do or what level of control I have in effecting my choices. It’s not ideal that I take the same fence-sitting approach to clinical decisions too. One thing I am sure of is that after what will be seven consecutive years of being a student I’m really looking forward to getting a job. Any job.